Developments
On Friday January 12, two days after Texas’s state government started blocking Border Patrol from a 2.5-mile stretch of the Rio Grande in Eagle Pass, three migrants—a woman and two children—drowned to death. The Department of Homeland Security stated that Border Patrol agents were aware that the migrants were in distress in the river, but were prevented from acting because Texas national guardsmen “physically barred” them from entering the area.
Texas is denying DHS’s account, claiming that the drownings had already occurred when Border Patrol sought to access the area. A Justice Department filing before the Supreme Court stated that the drownings had already happened when Border Patrol was blocked, but that it is “impossible to say what might have happened if Border Patrol had had its former access to the area.”
DHS sent a January 14 letter to Texas’s state attorney-general giving the state until Wednesday to reinstate Border Patrol’s access to Shelby Park in Eagle Pass. If Texas refuses, the letter promises “appropriate action,” including referring the matter to the Department of Justice. DOJ is already litigating Texas’s placement of buoys in the river in Eagle Pass; Texas’s ban on Border Patrol agents cutting concertina wire along the river; and Texas’s controversial anti-migrant law known as S.B.4.
“I think it’s not an exaggeration that this is as direct a confrontation between a state and the federal government as we’ve seen since desegregation,” Steve Vladeck, a constitutional law expert at the University of Texas School of Law, told the Washington Post.
“I’m glad for what Gov. Abbott is doing,” the president of the Border Patrol agents’ union, Brandon Judd, told Fox Business, calling DHS’s statements “propaganda.”
- Elizabeth B. Prelogar, “Second Supplemental Memorandum Regarding Emergency Application to Vacate the Injunction Pending Appeal” (U.S. Supreme Court, January 13, 2024).
- Holly Yan, Rosa Flores, “What We Know About the Drownings of 3 Mexican Migrants in Eagle Pass, Texas” (CNN, January 15, 2024).
- Aaron Torres, Philip Jankowski, “3 Migrants Drown in Rio Grande After Texas Denies Border Patrol Access, Congressman Says” (The Dallas Morning News, January 13, 2024).
- Camilo Montoya-Galvez, “3 Migrants Drowned Near Area Where Texas Has Denied Entry to Federal Border Agents” (CBS News, January 15, 2024).
- Camilo Montoya-Galvez, “Biden Administration Warns It Will Take Action if Texas Does Not Stop Blocking Federal Agents From U.S. Border Area” (CBS News, January 15, 2024).
- “Camilo Montoya-Galvez @Camiloreports on Twitter” (Twitter, January 14, 2024).
- Luke Barr, “Dhs Threatens to Take ‘Appropriate Action’ Against Texas Over Border Access” (ABC News, January 15, 2024).
- Priscilla Alvarez, “Biden Administration Demands Texas Immediately Stop Blocking Border Patrol Access” (CNN, January 14, 2024).
- Valerie Gonzalez, “Us Says Texas Blocked Border Agents From Entering Park to Try to Save 3 Migrants Who Drowned” (Associated Press, Associated Press, January 14, 2024).
- Colbi Edmonds, “3 Migrants, Including 2 Children, Drown Near Texas Border” (The New York Times, January 14, 2024).
- Anna Giaritelli, “Abbott’s Move at Texas Border Draws Ire of Democrats and Applause From Republicans” (The Washington Examiner, January 15, 2024).
- Anna Giaritelli, “White House Blames Abbott for ‘Blocking’ Border Patrol From Rescuing Drowning Immigrants: ‘Inhumane’” (The Washington Examiner, January 14, 2024).
- Neelam Bohra, Sneha Dey, “Feds Demand Texas Stop Blocking Border Patrol Agents Access to Border” (The Texas Tribune, January 13, 2024).
- Sandra Sanchez, “Update: State Officials Deny Responsibility for South Texas Border Drownings” (Border Report, January 14, 2024).
- Devan Cole, “Texas Tells Supreme Court It’s Working to Give Border Patrol Access to Boat Ramp on Rio Grande” (CNN, January 13, 2024).
- Elizabeth Findell, “U.S. Claims Texas Is Blocking Border Patrol From Busy Migrant Crossing Area” (The Wall Street Journal, January 12, 2024).
- Valerie Gonzalez, “Biden Administration Asks Supreme Court to Tell Texas to Stop Blocking Us Border Agents From Patrols” (Associated Press, Associated Press, January 12, 2024).
- Jerusalem Demsas, “Texas Pulls an Ugly Stunt on the Border” (The Atlantic, January 13, 2024).
- Nick Robertson, “Texas Denies State Prevented Border Protection From Rescuing Drowned Migrants” (The Hill, January 14, 2024).
- Arelis R. Hernandez, Nick Miroff, “Texas Blocks Feds From Rio Grande Park in New Escalation at Border” (The Washington Post, January 12, 2024).
- Aaron Torres, Joseph Morton, “Texas National Guard Blocks Federal Agents From Key Stretch of u.s-Mexico Border” (The Dallas Morning News, January 12, 2024).
- Rachel Dobkin, “Border Patrol Union Head Praises Greg Abbott After Military Blocks Agents” (Newsweek, January 15, 2024).
- Ali Bradley, “Border Tensions Grow Between Texas, Feds After 3 Drownings in Rio Grande” (NewsNation, January 15, 2024).
- “Aaron Torres @aarontorres_ on Twitter” (Twitter, January 13, 2024).
- “Anna Giaritelli @anna_giaritelli on Twitter” (Twitter, January 13, 2024).
- “Anna Giaritelli @anna_giaritelli on Twitter” (Twitter, January 13, 2024).
- “Greg Abbott @gregabbott_tx on Twitter” (Twitter, January 14, 2024).
- “Border Patrol Union – Nbpc @Bpunion on Twitter” (Twitter, January 12, 2024).
Migrant encounters at the U.S.-Mexico border continue to be well below December’s record-setting levels, hovering above 3,000 per day after exceeding 10,000 per day in December.
In Border Patrol’s Tucson Sector, which is currently the busiest of the agency’s nine U.S.-Mexico border sectors, Chief John Modlin reported 9,200 migrant apprehensions in the week ending January 11, down from 18,400-19,400 during each of the first three weeks of December.
In Jacumba Springs, California, Mexican authorities claim that daily arrivals have dropped to about 380 per day, from up to 1,200 last month.
“After a significant decrease in migrant encounters earlier this month, migrant apprehensions in the Del Rio Border Patrol Sector have increased since last week,” CNN reported. “About 1,000 migrant apprehensions took place Sunday in the Del Rio Sector, compared to between 500 and 600 earlier in the week.”
- Jay Croft, Rosa Flores, Sara Weisfeldt, “Tensions at the Border Grow as the Number of Migrant Apprehensions Drops Significantly” (CNN, January 12, 2024).
- “John R. Modlin @Usbpchieftca on Twitter” (Twitter, January 12, 2024).
- Khennia Reyes, “Es Jacume Principal Cruce Hacia Eu” (El Imparcial (Tijuana Mexico), January 13, 2024).
- Holly Yan, Rosa Flores, “What We Know About the Drownings of 3 Mexican Migrants in Eagle Pass, Texas” (CNN, January 15, 2024).
Temperatures are below freezing along the south Texas-Mexico border. On the Mexican side, Texas Public Radio reported, “Some migrants, more than 300 in Matamoros, still remain outdoors after authorities displaced more than a thousand individuals from encampments last month on the day after Christmas.”
- Pablo de la Rosa, “Migrants Face Freezing Temperatures on the Border” (Texas Public Radio, January 15, 2024).
A small group of senators continues to negotiate limits on asylum and other legal migration pathways, as a way to win Republican support for a budget package including aid to Ukraine and Israel and resources for border operations. It is possible, though far from certain, that legislative language could emerge this week. Negotiators appear to have agreed on a higher standard in asylum seekers’ “credible fear” interviews and Title 42-style expulsions of asylum seekers when migrant arrivals rise above a certain threshold. Republicans continue to insist on curbing the presidential authority to issue humanitarian parole, in particular to asylum seekers released at the border following “CBP One” appointments at ports of entry.
House Republican leaders are signaling that a deal coming out of the Senate could be “dead on arrival” (a phrase from Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-Louisiana)) if it doesn’t include items that Democrats are very unlikely to agree to, like hundreds of miles more border wall and a revived “Remain in Mexico” program. At Semafor, Joseph Zeballos-Roig pointed out that any harsh new measures involving more deportations would require Mexico to be willing to accept many of them.
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) posted a screenshot of what Fox News claimed were elements of a border deal with the words, “Absolutely not.” These included an increase in green card approvals and a threshold of 5,000 migrant arrivals per day that might trigger expulsions. Sen. James Lankford (R-Oklahoma), the Republicans’ lead negotiator, replied that the screenshot was false.
Lankford told Politico’s Burgess Everett that “If he can get 25 or more of the 49 GOP senators to sign onto something, he’s betting that it might be enough to get Speaker Mike Johnson to take up a big emergency spending bill with Ukraine aid—without losing the gavel to a conservative rebellion.”
- Joseph Zeballos-Roig, “Why a Border Deal Won’t Work Without Mexico’s Help” (Semafor, January 15, 2024).
- Burgess Everett, “What the Senate Gop’s Top Border Negotiator Needs to See” (Politico, January 12, 2024).
- “Speaker Mike Johnson @Speakerjohnson on Twitter” (Twitter, January 13, 2024).
- “Jake Sherman @Jakesherman on Twitter” (Twitter, January 14, 2024).
- “Jake Sherman @Jakesherman on Twitter” (Twitter, January 14, 2024).
- Josh Christenson, “Gop Senator Denies Leaked Border, Immigration Deal Draft: Don’t ‘Believe Everything You Read on the Internet’” (The New York Post, January 15, 2024).
- “Sen. James Lankford @Senatorlankford on Twitter” (Twitter, January 13, 2024).
- Thomas Kika, “Maga Furious at Border Deal Backed by Republican Senators: “Surrender”” (Newsweek, January 13, 2024).
Panama has acquired eight helicopters, among other measures to step up its patrolling of the treacherous Darién Gap migration corridor. The Panamanian government is calling the effort “Operation Chocó II,” and it is to last for at least six months.
- “Panama Reforzara la Vigilancia en la Frontera Con Colombia por Aumento de Flujo Migratorio” (EFE, Efecto Cocuyo (Venezuela), January 12, 2024).
Mexico’s foreign minister “ordered the 53 consulates in the United States and five in Canada to reinforce their media activity to defend the name of Mexico in the face of hate and fear speeches” during the upcoming 2024 U.S. electoral campaign, Milenio reported.
- Rafael Montes, “Barcena Pide Esfuerzo Mediatico a Consulados para Defender a Mexico” (Milenio (Mexico), January 12, 2024).
In 2022 and 2023, Mexico issued ‘oficios de salida’ to 33,695 citizens of Cuba. These “formally oblige them to leave the national territory, but in practice allow them to continue on their way to the northern border. …Meanwhile, 49,978 were granted visitor’s cards for humanitarian reasons, which allow them to remain in the country, travel freely and obtain employment for up to one year,” Reforma reported.
- Victor Osorio, “Da Mexico 50 Mil Visas Humanitarias a Cubanos” (Reforma (Mexico), January 16, 2024).
The state commission on missing persons in Baja California, Mexico reported that 30 migrants went missing in the Tijuana-San Diego area in 2023, but immigration officials and advocates assert that the true number of disappeared is much higher.
- Salvador Rivera, “30 Migrants Reported Missing Along San Diego-Tijuana Border in 2023” (Border Report, January 12, 2024).
Homicides in Tijuana (pop. 1.7 million) dropped by 8 percent from 2022 to 2023, to a still very-high 1,884.
- “Mapeo Criminal de una Ciudad Violenta” (Revista Zeta (Tijuana Mexico), January 15, 2024).
Analyses and Feature Stories
Policy changes that might come from a deal in the Senate, like enabling asylum seeker expulsions and weakening humanitarian parole, “are likely to drive more unauthorized migration to the border and make President Biden’s immigration challenges even worse,” wrote Andrea Flores of fwd.us, a former Biden White House official, at the New York Times.
- Andrea R. Flores, “This Border Deal Is a Political Trap for Democrats” (fwd.us, The New York Times, January 15, 2024).
“David J. Peters, a sociologist at Iowa State University who studies opioid addiction in rural areas, argued that the campaigns focusing on Mexico and border security are an easier sell than focusing on the underlying reason people take drugs, whether it’s unequal economic opportunities, family instability or mental health woes,” reported the Washington Post.
- David Ovalle, Meryl Kornfield, “‘It’s Just Talk’: Iowans Touched by Fentanyl Call Out Presidential Candidates on Rhetoric” (The Washington Post, January 13, 2024).
San Diego’s inewsource reported back after “reporters spent 48 straight hours, starting noon Jan. 2, in and around the encampments” where migrants are awaiting Border Patrol processing near Jacumba Springs, California.
- Cody Dulaney, Philip Salata, Sofia Mejias-Pascoe, Zoe Meyers, “Where the Border Wall Ends in San Diego, an Unofficial Gateway Opens for Migrants” (inewsource, January 12, 2024).