January 22, 2024

Developments

Several cabinet-level officials from the United States and Mexico met in Washington on January 19 “to follow up on migration commitments made on December 27.” Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Foreign Relations Secretary Alicia Bárcena, and other top officials “discussed the positive impact of efforts to increase migration controls on bus and train routes, crack down on criminal smuggling networks, and scale up repatriations for those who do not have a legal basis to remain in our countries,” according to a State Department readout. U.S. officials are giving Mexico’s actions much credit for January’s reduction in migrant encounters at the border.

Mexico’s Foreign Ministry announced that U.S. and Mexican representatives will soon pay a visit to Panama’s Darién Gap migration corridor. They will also meet soon to discuss migration with the newly inaugurated government in Guatemala.

“Discussions With Mexican Officials on Migration at the Department of State” (U.S. Department of State, January 20, 2024).
“México y Estados Unidos Acuerdan Continuar la Estrecha Colaboración para Promover una Migración Ordenada, Humana, Segura y Regular” (Secretaria de Relaciones Exteriores (Mexico), January 19, 2024).
Antony J. Blinken, “Secretary Antony J. Blinken and Mexican Foreign Secretary Alicia Barcena Before Their Meeting” (U.S. Department of State, January 19, 2024).
“Eu-Felicita a Mexico por los Resultados Positivos Freno Migracion” (EFE, Milenio (Mexico), January 20, 2024).
Mike Stone, “Us-Mexico Immigration Coordination Producing Results, Official Says” (Reuters, January 20, 2024).
Angel Hernandez, “Mexico y Eu Acuerdan Visitar el Darien para Evaluar Flujo Migratorio” (Milenio (Mexico), January 20, 2024).

Texas authorities recovered a body from the Rio Grande in Eagle Pass’s Shelby Park, the area where Texas’s state government has barred entry of Border Patrol agents. A woman and two children drowned in the area on January 12. “Caught in the middle” of the state-federal dispute in Eagle Pass “are residents of this mostly Mexican American town of 28,000 residents, some who say they feel helpless after the state seized their park,” reads an overview by Uriel García at the Texas Tribune.

Perry Chiaramonte, “Body Found in Rio Grande Near Park at Center of Tense Standoff Between Texas Officials and Border Patrol” (The Messenger, January 21, 2024).
Uriel J. Garcia, “In Eagle Pass, a Tense Border Standoff Between Texas and the Federal Government Is Reaching a Crescendo” (The Texas Tribune, January 22, 2024).

Guatemalan police dispersed an attempted caravan of about 500 mostly Venezuelan and Honduran migrants who had crossed into Guatemalan territory on January 20. (As often happens, most of the migrants will instead re-enter through irregular border crossings and seek to avoid detection, often hiring smugglers or bribing officials to do so.)

In Mexico, a “caravan” that left the Mexico-Guatemala border zone at Christmas remains in the southern state of Oaxaca. About 1,400 participants are aiming to get to Mexico City on foot, as Mexico has prohibited vehicles from transporting them.

“A Caravan of Migrants From Honduras Who Were Heading to the Us Dissolves in Guatemala” (Associated Press, Associated Press, January 21, 2024).
“Caravana de Migrantes Que Buscaba Llegar a ee.uu. Se Desintegra en Guatemala Luego de Ser Detenida por Pnc” (Agence France Presse, Prensa Libre (Guatemala), January 21, 2024).
“Caravana de Migrantes en la Que Viajan Venezolanos Fue Retenida en Guatemala” (Tal Cual (Venezuela), January 21, 2024).
Ana Lucia Ola, “Vicepresidenta Karin Herrera se Reune Con la Autoridad Migratoria Nacional para Coordinar Acciones Ante Caravana de Migrantes” (Prensa Libre (Guatemala), January 21, 2024).
Ramon Bragana, “Caravana Migrante en Oaxaca Deja Juchitan y Avanza a Tehuantepec” (Milenio (Mexico), January 20, 2024).

Migration has declined sharply in south Texas’s Rio Grande Valley, which from 2013 to 2021 was first in migrant encounters among Border Patrol’s nine U.S.-Mexico border sectors, the Washington Examiner reported. An increase in organized crime violence on the Mexican side of the border, in the conflictive state of Tamaulipas, may be a key reason for the reduction.

Currently, the busiest of the nine Border Patrol sectors is Tucson, Arizona. There, Sector Chief John Modlin tweeted that agents apprehended 11,900 migrants between January 12-18. That is a significant drop from 18,000-19,000 per week during the first 3 weeks of December 2023, but an increase over 9,200 apprehensions the week of January 5-11.

Apprehensions remain low in the El Paso Sector (far west Texas and New Mexico): 470 per day during the week of January 12-18, down from over 1,000 per day in December.

Anna Giaritelli, “Rio Grande Valley Now Being Avoided by Migrants After Being a Hot Spot for a Decade” (The Washington Examiner, January 21, 2024).
“John R. Modlin @Usbpchieftca on Twitter” (Twitter, January 19, 2024).
“Anthony “Scott” Good @Usbpchiefept on Twitter” (Twitter, January 19, 2024).

House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas) and the ranking Democrat on the chamber’s Homeland Security Appropriations Subcommittee, Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas) are part of a four-person delegation to the U.S.-Mexico border and to Mexico City. Rep. McCaul voiced “worry about the mental health of our Border Patrol. The suicide rate is going up. They don’t have the proper resources.”

Anna Giaritelli, “Frustrated Bipartisan Lawmakers Travel to Mexico City to Discuss Border Security” (The Washington Examiner, January 21, 2024).
Elizabeth Elkind, “‘Sense of Hopelessness’: Michael Mccaul Sounds Alarm on Border Patrol Mental Health Crisis” (Fox News, January 21, 2024).
Sandra Sanchez, “Lawmakers Tour South Texas Border Before Heading to Mexico City” (Border Report, January 20, 2024).
Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), “Mccaul Leads Bipartisan Delegation to Texas Border, Mexico” (U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs, January 19, 2024).

President Biden told reporters on January 19 that the border is not secure: “I haven’t believed that for the last 10 years, and I’ve said it for the last 10 years. Give me the money.” In prepared remarks, he added, “I’m ready to solve the problem. I really am. Massive changes. And I mean it sincerely.”

Filip Timotija, “Biden Says Border Hasn’t Been Secure for the ‘Last 10 Years’” (The Hill, January 20, 2024).
Ariana Figueroa, “Biden Says He’s ‘Ready to Act’ on ‘Significant’ Changes at the Border, Including Asylum” (States Newsroom, Nebraska Examiner, January 19, 2024).

A release from the Texas governor’s office broke down a total of 101,800 migrants placed on buses since April 2022, at state expense, to Washington, New York, Chicago, Philadelphia, Denver, and Los Angeles.

“Operation Lone Star Reinforces Border Barriers to Deter Illegal Crossings” (Texas Governor’s Office, January 19, 2024).

Analyses and Feature Stories

A potential deal in the Senate for tighter asylum restrictions for Ukraine aid “is already wobbling, as House Speaker Mike Johnson faces intense pressure from Trump and his House allies to demand more sweeping concessions from Democrats and the White House,” read an Associated Press analysis. “This febrile atmosphere makes the chances of border reform—tricky even under a more productive Congress—look slim,” the Economist observed. “Plenty of Republicans will conclude that this is no bad thing.” A New York Times analysis noted, “Election-year politics is playing a big role.”

60 House of Representatives members in the New Democrat Coalition signed a letter to Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) calling on him to negotiate a migration-restrictions-for-Ukraine-aid deal in good faith.

Stephen Groves, “Election-Year Politics Threaten Senate Border Deal as Trump and His Allies Rally Opposition” (Associated Press, Associated Press, January 20, 2024).
“Will Republicans Strike a Border Deal?” (The Economist (Uk), January 19, 2024).
Annie Karni, Karoun Demirjian, “With Deal Close on Border and Ukraine, Republican Rifts Threaten to Kill Both” (The New York Times, January 19, 2024).
“New Democrat Coalition Implores Speaker Johnson to Put Partisan Politics Aside, Negotiate a Bipartisan Border Bill” (New Democrat Coalition, January 19, 2024).

A backgrounder from the International Refugee Assistance Project explained the Biden administration’s “Safe Mobility Offices” in Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, and Guatemala. These are a so-far limited effort to make legal immigration pathways available to some migrants in those countries, so that they may avoid traveling to the U.S.-Mexico border to seek asylum. The document includes a flowchart laying out the Offices’ complex approval process.

“What We Know About the Biden Administration’s Safe Mobility Initiative” (International Refugee Assistance Project, January 19, 2024).

Two conservative media outlets, Fox News and NewsMax, published stories over the weekend reporting on organized crime violence in Mexican border cities. “No one wants to work on anything else right now. Everyone wants to work with the migrants because you can make a lot of money from it these days and it is easy work,” according to a quote from a cartel member in Ciudad Juárez that appeared in both articles.

Luis Chaparro, “Cartel Human Smuggling Business Is Turning Entire Border Towns Into War Zones” (Fox News, January 21, 2024).
Eric Mack, “Mexico Border Towns Are War Zones Due to Drug Cartels” (Newsmax, January 21, 2024).

“President Joe Biden’s third year in office was another letdown” at the border for both immigration restrictionists and immigrant rights advocates, wrote the Washington Examiner’s Anna Giaritelli.