Developments
After more than two months of talks and an agreement nearly finished, prospects are dimming for a Senate deal that might restrict the right to seek asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border, a Republican demand for allowing a package of Ukraine, Israel, border, and other spending to go forward.
The leadership of the House of Representatives Republican majority continues to dig in against it because they feel it doesn’t go far enough and because Donald Trump is attacking it.
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) tweeted yesterday a new Republican talking point: that President Biden could limit migration through executive action, using existing legal authorities like detaining all asylum seekers (for which no budget exists), or issuing highly controversial blanket bans on classes of people, like Donald Trump’s 2017 “Muslim Ban” executive order (which do not supersede the right to seek asylum at the border).
Many Senate Republicans, too, are either attacking the deal or appearing to back away. A senior Republican, John Cornyn (Texas), told Politico that “it certainly doesn’t seem like” the deal can pass the Senate. “There are a number of our members who say, ‘Well, I’ll join a majority of the Republicans but if it doesn’t enjoy that sort of support, then count me out.’”
The “decision as to whether to proceed to a floor vote, which would involve releasing the [deal’s] text, is largely a decision being made by Republicans,” said lead Democratic negotiator Sen. Chris Murphy (D-Connecticut).
- Burgess Everett, “Gop Senators Fear Border Deal May Already Be Doomed” (Politico, January 30, 2024).
- John M. Donnelly, “Supplemental Stuck for Now in Senate Starting Blocks” (Roll Call, January 31, 2024).
- Joseph Zeballos-Roig, “The New Border Deal Gives the President Big New Powers. Conservatives Say It Doesn’t Go Far Enough.” (Semafor, January 30, 2024).
- “Speaker Mike Johnson @Speakerjohnson on Twitter” (Twitter, January 30, 2024).
- “Melanie Zanona @Mzanona on Twitter” (Twitter, January 30, 2024).
- “Ellen M. Gilmer @Ellengilmer on Twitter” (Twitter, January 30, 2024).
- “Burgess Everett @Burgessev on Twitter” (Twitter, January 30, 2024).
- “Priscilla Alvarez @Priscialva on Twitter” (Twitter, January 30, 2024).
- Alex J. Rouhandeh, “Republican Feud Stalls Border Deal, Says Democratic Negotiator Chris Murphy” (Newsweek, January 30, 2024).
- Catherine Rampell, “House Republicans Keep Fumbling Immigration. Maybe They’re Just Incompetent?” (The Washington Post, January 30, 2024).
- Emily Brooks, “Speaker Johnson Not Dismissing Border Deal to Help Trump: ‘That’s Absurd’” (The Hill, January 30, 2024).
- Natalie Venegas, “Mike Johnson’s 4-Word Response to Claim He’s Tanking Border to Help Trump” (Newsweek, January 30, 2024).
- Rafael Bernal, “Can Biden ‘Shut Down’ the Border Right Now?” (The Hill, January 30, 2024).
Following a nearly 15-hour hearing, the Republican majority on the House Homeland Security Committee voted 18-15, on strict party lines, to advance the impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.
“Republicans have not yet offered clear evidence that Mayorkas committed any high crimes and misdemeanors,” a Washington Post analysis noted. It is not clear whether Republicans have enough votes in their caucus to gain the majority of the full House necessary to send the impeachment to the Democratic-majority Senate, where Mayorkas’s acquittal is certain.
- Jacqueline Alemany, Mariana Alfaro, “The Republican Effort to Impeach Mayorkas, Explained” (The Washington Post, January 30, 2024).
- Annie Grayer, “House Republicans Vote to Advance Effort to Impeach Dhs Secretary Mayorkas” (CNN, January 31, 2024).
- Jordain Carney, “House Panel Advances Impeachment Articles Against Mayorkas” (Politico, January 31, 2024).
- Anna Giaritelli, “House Panel Advances Mayorkas Articles of Impeachment” (The Washington Examiner, January 31, 2024).
- Caitlin Yilek, Kaia Hubbard, “House Committee Advances Mayorkas Impeachment Articles, Teeing Up Historic Floor Vote” (CBS News, January 31, 2024).
- Lisa Mascaro, Rebecca Santana, “House Gop Takes Party-Line Vote Toward Mayorkas Impeachment as Border Becomes 2024 Campaign Issue” (Associated Press, Associated Press, January 30, 2024).
- Ted Hesson, “Republican Us House Panel Advances Impeachment Charges Against Border Chief” (Reuters, Reuters, January 31, 2024).
- Rafael Bernal, “Hispanic Groups Support Mayorkas Against Impeachment Despite Policy Disagreements” (The Hill, January 30, 2024).
- Alan Dershowitz, “Republicans Who Voted Against Impeaching Trump Should Not Vote to Impeach Mayorkas” (The Hill, January 30, 2024).
“I assure you that your false accusations do not rattle me,” Mayorkas wrote in a letter to Homeland Security Committee Chairman Rep. Mark Green (R-Tennessee).
- “Camilo Montoya-Galvez @Camiloreports on Twitter” (Twitter, January 30, 2024).
- Stef W. Kight, “Mayorkas Mounts 11th-Hour Defense Against Gop Impeachment Effort” (Axios, January 30, 2024).
Mayorkas met virtually with relevant officials from Guatemala’s new government to discuss cooperation on countering migration and drug trafficking.
- Sandy Pineda, “Secretario de Seguridad Nacional de ee.uu., Alejandro Mayorkas Aborda Tema Migratorio Con el Ministro de Gobernacion Francisco Jimenez” (Prensa Libre (Guatemala), January 30, 2024).
While the Mayorkas impeachment proceeded, Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), one of the House’s foremost border hardliners and a defender of Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s (R) state-led crackdown, held a hearing about state versus federal jurisdiction in the House Judiciary Subcommittee on the Constitution, which he chairs.
- Clayton Vickers, “Chip Roy Invokes Dred Scott to Slam Supreme Court Border Ruling” (The Hill, January 30, 2024).
- Steven Dial, “Texas’ Border Battle With White House Takes Center Stage at Congressional Hearing” (FOX 4 News (Dallas Texas), January 30, 2024).
- Robert Downen, Uriel J. Garcia, “Texas’ Standoff With the Feds in Eagle Pass Is Igniting Calls for Secession and Fears of Violence” (The Texas Tribune, January 30, 2024).
As the Biden administration moves to reinstate sanctions on Venezuela—a response to the Caracas regime’s disqualification of the main opposition candidate in elections scheduled this year—the country’s vice president announced that Venezuela would prohibit U.S. flights deporting Venezuelan migrants as of February 13.
Between the October 5, 2023 reinstatement of deportation flights and January 21, 2024, ICE had sent 14 deportation planes to Venezuela.
- “Delcy Rodriguez @Delcyrodriguezv on Twitter” (Twitter, January 30, 2024).
- Kejal Vyas, “Venezuela Threatens to Stop Accepting Venezuelans Deported From U.S.” (The Wall Street Journal, January 30, 2024).
An Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) contract plane flew deported Mexican migrants to Mexico’s central Pacific state of Michoacán yesterday. It was the first “interior removal” flight of Mexican citizens since May 2022.
- “Thcartwright @Thcartwright on Twitter” (Twitter, January 30, 2024).
Colombia’s migration authority released its first-ever estimate of migration through the treacherous Darién Gap region in 2023: 539,949 people. This is slightly higher than Panama’s estimate of 520,085, which the Panamanian government updates monthly.
- “Casi 300.000 Venezolanos Cruzaron la Selva del Darien Durante 2023” (EFE, Efecto Cocuyo (Venezuela), January 30, 2024).
Analyses and Feature Stories
Three New York Times reporters examined the evolution of President Biden’s border policies since 2021, portraying it as a turn toward favoring harder-line measures as migration at the border increased.
- Hamed Aleaziz, Michael D. Shear, Zolan Kanno-Youngs, “How the Border Crisis Shattered Biden’s Immigration Hopes” (The New York Times, January 30, 2024).
By moving to the right on border and migration as the 2024 campaign gets underway, President Biden “is trying to strip Republicans of one of their most effective wedge issues,” reads a USA Today analysis.
- Joey Garrison, Lauren Villagran, “Biden’s Pivot: Why the President Is Moving to the Right in 2024 on Immigration” (USA Today, January 31, 2024).
Centrist strategist Ruy Teixeira told New York Times columnist Thomas Edsall that he doubted Biden has “the stomach to turn a ‘red meat’ conservative stance on immigration into a wedge issue.”
- Thomas B. Edsall, “Can Biden Really Play Mr. Tough Guy on the Border?” (The New York Times, January 31, 2024).
Tonatiuh Guillén, a migration expert who headed the Mexican government’s immigration authority during the first months of Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s presidency, accused the López Obrador of apparent “passivity” in the face of a possible new U.S. authority to expel migrants, which would require Mexico’s cooperation.
- Tonatiuh Guillen Lopez, “El “Cierre” de la Frontera de Estados Unidos Con Mexico” (Proceso (Mexico), January 30, 2024).
Similarly, a Current History article by the New School’s Alexandra Delano Alonso found that the López Obrador government is mirroring the U.S. focus on deterrence, abandoning a more humane migration policy.
- Alexandra Delano Alonso, “Migrants in Waiting in Mexico” (The New School, Current History, January 30, 2024).
USA Today, Washington Post, and Slate reporters visited Eagle Pass, the epicenter of Gov. Abbott’s standoff with the federal government, placing local residents’ views at the center of their reporting.
- Rick Jervis, “As Border Battle Brews Between Texas and U.S., Tiny Eagle Pass Braces for Its Next Conflict” (USA Today, January 31, 2024).
- Arelis R. Hernandez, “Texas Border City on Edge as Gov. Abbott Dials Up Battle With Biden” (The Washington Post, January 30, 2024).
- Molly Olmstead, “Texas and Biden Are Warring Over a Border Town. Its Residents Just Want Their Park Back.” (Slate, January 31, 2024).
As a convoy of right-wing protesters heads to Eagle Pass this weekend, Wired found much confusion and paranoia within the group’s exchanges on the Telegram platform.
- David Gilbert, “The ‘Take Our Border Back’ Convoy Is Already a Complete Mess” (Wired, January 30, 2024).
At CalMatters, Wendy Fry examined Customs and Border Protection’s (CBP) plans to construct more high-tech surveillance towers along California’s southern border.
- Wendy Fry, “‘A Partner That Never Sleeps’: Surveillance Towers Extend Border Patrol’s California Reach” (CalMatters, January 30, 2024).
At his Americas Migration Brief newsletter, Jordi Amaral expected Ecuador’s organized-crime violence to trigger an even greater outflow of migration. (Ecuador was the number-seven nationality of migrants encountered at the U.S.-Mexico border in 2023.)
- Jordi Amaral, “The Migratory Implications of Ecuador’s Crisis” (Americas Migration Brief, January 30, 2024).
On the Right
- Sen. Rick Scott (R-Florida), “The Voters Are Rejecting Washington’s Failed Border Deal” (The Hill, January 30, 2024).