Developments
The Senate will hold a procedural vote at 1:00pm today on whether to proceed with debate on a $118 billion spending bill, which includes—in response to Republican demands—negotiated compromise language that would reduce migrants’ ability to seek asylum at the U.S.-Mexico border. The vote is expected to fail, falling well short of the 60-vote threshold that it needs, as conservative Republicans have lined up against the compromise language, arguing that it doesn’t go far enough. Some Democrats, concerned by the harm to migrants, will also vote “no.”
- Joan E. Greve, “‘Dead on Arrival’: Us Senate Poised for Procedural Vote on $118bn Border Bill” (The Guardian (Uk), February 7, 2024).
“We have no real chance here to make a law,” said Minority Leader Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky).
- Ursula Perano, “Mcconnell Admits Defeat on Border Deal: ‘It Will Not Become Law’” (Politico, February 6, 2024).
- “Burgess Everett @Burgessev on Twitter” (Twitter, February 6, 2024).
This concludes a two-and-a-half-month negotiation process. Media coverage is broadly portraying this as a Republican flip-flop and last-minute caving in to pressure from Donald Trump, with Democrats “setting a trap” for Republicans by calling their bluff and making concessions on tough border measures.
- Carl Hulse, “On the Border, Republicans Set a Trap, Then Fell Into It” (The New York Times, February 6, 2024).
- David Leonhardt, “Republicans Against Border Enforcement” (The New York Times, February 7, 2024).
- Michael Tomasky, “The Gop Owns the Border Now. Here’s How Democrats Make Sure of It.” (The New Republic, February 6, 2024).
- Anthony Adragna, Ursula Perano, “Senate Gop Mulls Whether It Wants to Delay or Outright Kill Bipartisan Border Deal” (Politico, February 6, 2024).
Some coverage portrays the fiasco as a setback for less Trump-aligned conservatives like McConnell, who supported the compromise. Asked whether he felt like he’d been thrown under the bus, the Republicans’ chief negotiator on the deal, Sen. James Lankford (R-Oklahoma), said “and backed up.”
- Burgess Everett, “Behind the Border Mess: Open Gop Rebellion Against Mcconnell” (Politico, February 7, 2024).
- Joseph Zeballos-Roig, “The Border Bill’s Collapse Leaves Some Republicans Dazed and Confused” (Semafor, February 6, 2024).
- Kayla Guo, “As G.O.P. Demolishes Border Deal, One of Its Own Stands in the Wreckage” (The New York Times, February 7, 2024).
- “John Mccormack @Mccormackjohn on Twitter” (Twitter, February 6, 2024).
- Alex J. Rouhandeh, “Republican Disregard for Border Negotiator James Lankford Angers Democrats” (Newsweek, February 6, 2024).
In a mid-day address from the White House, President Joe Biden voiced strong support for the bill, despite some very conservative limits on asylum and migration that contradict his earlier policy positions. He blamed Donald Trump, and Republicans’ failure to stand up to him, for the bill’s likely failure, calling on GOP members to “show some spine.”
- “Remarks by President Biden Urging Congress to Pass the Emergency National Security Supplemental Appropriations Act” (The White House, February 6, 2024).
- Cleve R. Wootson Jr., “Biden Vows to Make Trump Attack on Conservative Border Bill a Campaign Issue” (The Washington Post, February 6, 2024).
- Aamer Madhani, Mary Clare Jalonick, Stephen Groves, “Border Security and Ukraine Aid Collapses Despite Biden’s Plea for Congress to ‘Show Some Spine’” (Associated Press, Associated Press, February 6, 2024).
- Catherine E. Shoichet, “What the Border Bill Would and Wouldn’t Do” (CNN, February 6, 2024).
Once today’s vote fails as expected, Majority Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-New York) is likely to seek a procedural vote on a version of the spending bill—which includes aid to Ukraine and Israel, and $20 billion for numerous border and migration items—with the border compromise language removed. This “cleaner” bill may have more Republican support. The Senate departs after this week for a two-week recess.
- Andrew Desiderio, John Bresnahan, “Schumer’s Plan B: Clean Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan Bill” (Punchbowl News, February 7, 2024).
- Jake Sherman, John Bresnahan, Mica Soellner, “Schumer Moves on Foreign Aid as House Gop Fumbles” (Punchbowl News, February 7, 2024).
- Morgan Chalfant, “The Border Deal Is Dead. What Now for Ukraine Aid?” (Semafor, February 6, 2024).
- “Steven Dennis @Steventdennis on Twitter” (Twitter, February 6, 2024).
Republicans’ bad day on Capitol Hill was punctuated in the House of Representatives by a stunning 214-216 rejection of articles of impeachment against Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas. Surprisingly, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) went ahead with the vote even though all Democrats were opposed and House Republican leaders did not have certainty over their side’s vote count.
- Jordain Carney, Olivia Beavers, “House Gop Fails to Impeach Mayorkas Over Border Handling” (Politico, February 6, 2024).
- Amy B Wang, Jacqueline Alemany, Marianna Sotomayor, Paul Kane, “In Stunning Vote, House Republicans Fail to Impeach Secretary Mayorkas” (The Washington Post, February 6, 2024).
- Anna Giaritelli, “Alejandro Mayorkas Dodges Impeachment by House Over Border Crisis” (The Washington Examiner, February 6, 2024).
The Secretary, whom House Republicans claim has mismanaged the border to the extent that it constitutes “high crimes and misdemeanors,” will keep his job for now thanks to the votes of three Republican members: Reps. Ken Buck (R-eastern Colorado), Tom McClintock (R-San Joaquín Valley, California), and Mike Gallagher (R-Green Bay, Wisconsin). A fourth Republican, Rep. Blake Moore (R-Utah), changed his vote to “no” for procedural reasons, allowing a motion to reconsider.
- Caitlin Yilek, “Alejandro Mayorkas Survives House Impeachment Vote as Gop Lawmakers Defect” (CBS News, February 6, 2024).
House Republican leaders vow to bring the impeachment up again when one more member of their caucus is present: Majority Leader Rep. Steve Scalise (R-Louisiana), who is receiving treatments for blood cancer. Scalise is not expected to return to the House today.
- “Sahil Kapur @sahilkapur on Twitter“ (Twitter, February 6, 2024).
Border Patrol Chief Jason Owens tweeted that the agency has apprehended “+160 undocumented subjects with gang affiliations” during the first four months of fiscal year 2024. If sustained all year, this rate—about 40 allegedly gang-tied migrants per month—would be the fewest since fiscal 2021 and the 3rd-fewest in the 8 years since fiscal year 2017.
- “Chief Jason Owens @Usbpchief on Twitter” (Twitter, February 6, 2024).
Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operated 130 removal flights in January, up a bit from 128 in December and down from 140 in November, according to Tom Cartwright’s latest monthly report for Witness at the Border. Top destinations were Guatemala (53 flights), Honduras (37), El Salvador (11), Colombia (6), Ecuador (5), and Venezuela (4). One flight each went to Mauritania, India, and Romania.
- Tom Cartwright, Ice Air Flights January 2024 & Last 12 Months (Witness at the Border, Sunday, February 4, 2024).
Border Report went to Jacume, Mexico, just south of Jacumba Springs, California, where Mexico’s National Guard has set up a camp in an effort to block migrants at a point where asylum seekers have been arriving for months seeking to turn themselves in to U.S. authorities.
- Salvador Rivera, “Mexico Sets Up Camp to Stop Unlawful Crossings in Mountains East of San Diego” (Border Report, February 6, 2024).
Analyses and Feature Stories
At the New York Times, Cesar Cuauhtémoc Garcia Hernandez of Ohio State University recalled that the Title 42 expulsion authority did not deter migration, and it would be wrong to expect the expulsion authority in the failing Senate bill to do so.
- Cesar Cuauhtemoc Garcia Hernandez, “This Immigration Bill Was Never Going to Fix the Border” (Ohio State University, The New York Times, February 7, 2024).
At the New Republic, James North pushed back against the fiction that migrants are introducing fentanyl across the border into the United States.
- James North, “How the Media Falls for the Right’s Fentanyl Lies” (The New Republic, February 7, 2024).
In an interview at the Border Chronicle, WOLA’s Adam Isacson (this post’s author) walked through some of the current migration trends and data at the border and along the migration route right now.
- Melissa del Bosque, “Fight Corruption and Invest in Asylum: A Q&A With Adam Isacson” (The Border Chronicle, February 6, 2024).