Developments
On Friday, Senate Democratic leadership sounded optimistic that by Sunday, negotiators would reach a basic agreement on compromises weakening U.S. asylum and other migrant protections. That is Republican legislators’ demand for supporting the Biden administration’s $110.5 billion request for Ukraine and Israel aid, border measures, and other priorities. White House officials, DHS Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, and a small group of senators met every day this past weekend. While senators say they’ve “closed out” some items and are getting closer to a deal, by Sunday evening they remained far apart. The Senate is now unlikely to pass legislation before the week of January 8, and the House will not be coming back until then.
- Burgess Everett, Myah Ward, “Congress Unlikely to Finish Work on Ukraine, Border Deal This Year” (Politico, December 17, 2023).
- Seung Min Kim, “How the White House Got Involved in the Border Talks on Capitol Hill — With Ukraine Aid at Stake” (Associated Press, Associated Press, December 18, 2023).
- “Andrew Desiderio @Andrewdesiderio on Twitter” (Twitter, December 17, 2023).
- Lisa Mascaro, Stephen Groves, “Senate Border Security Talks Grind on as Trump Invokes Nazi-Era ‘Blood’ Rhetoric Against Immigrants” (Associated Press, Associated Press, December 17, 2023).
- Ryan King, “Lindsey Graham Has ‘Never Been More Worried About a 9/11’ With Border Deal ‘Not Close’” (The New York Post, December 17, 2023).
- Caitlin Yilek, “Rep. Tony Gonzales on Potential Border Deal Passing the House: ‘Have to Sweeten the Deal’” (CBS News, December 17, 2023).
- “Mica Soellner @Micasoellnerdc on Twitter” (Twitter, December 17, 2023).
- “Andrew Desiderio @Andrewdesiderio on Twitter” (Twitter, December 17, 2023).
- “Burgess Everett @Burgessev on Twitter” (Twitter, December 17, 2023).
- “Lisa Desjardins @Lisadnews on Twitter” (Twitter, December 17, 2023).
- David Dayen, “The Immigration Policy Spiral” (The American Prospect, December 15, 2023).
- Camilo Montoya-Galvez, “Senators Eye Border Deal Framework as Early as Sunday, Though Parole Policy Remains Sticking Point” (CBS News, December 15, 2023).
- “Burgess Everett @Burgessev on Twitter” (Twitter, December 15, 2023).
According to partial reports, negotiators have reached general agreement on:
- A suspension of the right to seek asylum, with Title 42-style expulsions, once migrant arrivals reach a certain threshold.
- A geographic and numeric expansion of expedited removal, which requires asylum seekers to defend their cases before an asylum officer in a very rapid manner.
- Higher standards of credible fear that asylum seekers placed in expedited removal proceedings would have to meet.
- Detention of asylum seekers while pursuing their claims.
Reports indicate that negotiators disagree on:
- The threshold that would trigger the new Title 42-like expulsions authority.
- The extent of the nationwide expansion of expedited removal.
- Which asylum seekers would be subject to mandatory detention (and presumably whether they would include families with children).
- A Republican demand to roll back much of the 1950s-era presidential authority to grant humanitarian parole, currently being used to admit Ukrainians and a combined 30,000 citizens per month from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela.
- Republican demands to negotiate new “safe third country” agreements to send asylum seekers elsewhere, and perhaps a new “Remain in Mexico” program.
- Aileen Graef, Betsy Klein, Priscilla Alvarez, “White House and Senate Negotiators Race to Reach a Border Deal, With Ukraine Aid on the Line” (CNN, December 17, 2023).
- “Julie Tsirkin @Julienbcnews on Twitter” (Twitter, December 16, 2023).
- Hamed Aleaziz, “Here’s How a Border Deal Could Affect People Seeking Asylum in the U.S.” (The New York Times, December 15, 2023).
- Nicole Narea, “Biden Weighs A “Shocking” Revival of Trump’s Immigration Agenda” (Vox, December 15, 2023).
- “Priscilla Alvarez @Priscialva on Twitter” (Twitter, December 15, 2023).
White House officials met on Saturday with members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, which has voiced opposition to weakening asylum and whose members say they have been left in the dark about ongoing negotiations. Fifteen hard-right senators meanwhile sent a letter to the Senate Republican Conference demanding to be consulted on “rushed and secret negotiations with Democrats.” The large number of dissenters on both sides will make a majority hard to reach on any eventual deal.
- Amanda Terkel, Julie Tsirkin, Monica Alba, “Congressional Hispanic Caucus Airs Frustrations on Border Deal in Meeting With White House” (NBC News, December 17, 2023).
- Lisa Mascaro, Rebecca Santana, Stephen Groves, “Latino Democrats Shift From Quiet Concern to Open Opposition to Biden’s Concessions in Border Talks” (Associated Press, Associated Press, December 16, 2023).
- Andrea Castillo, Courtney Subramanian, Erin B. Logan, “California’s Sen. Padilla Personally Warned Biden Not to Fold to Gop on Immigration to Aid Ukraine” (The Los Angeles Times, December 15, 2023).
- “Ursula Perano @Ursulaperano on Twitter” (Twitter, December 17, 2023).
Despite cold temperatures, thousands of migrants have been arriving atop trains in Ciudad Juárez, across from El Paso. As of this morning, CBP is suspending border railway crossings into El Paso.
- “Migrantes Buscan Cruzar Frontera Pese a Bajas Temperaturas” (Milenio (Mexico), December 17, 2023).
- “Statement From Cbp on Suspension of Rail Operations in Eagle Pass and el Paso, Texas” (U.S. Customs and Border Protection, December 17, 2023).
- Daniel Borunda, “Cbp to Suspend Border Railway Crossings in el Paso, Eagle Pass Due to Migrant Surge” (The El Paso Times, December 17, 2023).
- “El Paso Sector Warns Migrants Not to Be Led by Misinformation” (U.S. Customs and Border Protection, December 15, 2023).
Border Patrol migrant encounters remained very high in the agency’s Tucson, Arizona sector during the week ending December 14 (18,400), though down slightly from the week ending December 7 (18,900). Border Patrol processing facilities in the sector are at 130 percent capacity. The large-scale arrivals caused CBP to close its port of entry in remote Lukeville to assist with processing. Gov. Katie Hobbs (D) has ordered a deployment of National Guard personnel near the border.
- “John R. Modlin @Usbpchieftca on Twitter” (Twitter, December 16, 2023).
- Julia Ainsley, “The Legal Border Crossing in This Tiny Arizona Town Has Been Closed Indefinitely Because There Are Too Many Migrants” (NBC News, December 16, 2023).
- Anita Snow, “Arizona’s Governor Is Sending the State’s National Guard to the Border to Help With a Migrant Influx” (Associated Press, Associated Press, December 16, 2023).
- Bob Christie, “Hobbs Orders Soldiers to Help Near Border but Not at Lukeville Crossing” (Capitol Media Services, The Arizona Daily Star, December 16, 2023).
Later today, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) will sign into law S.B.4, which makes unauthorized U.S.-Mexico border crossings a state crime punishable by prison if the captured migrant refuses to be returned to Mexico.
- Lauren Villagran, “What Is sb4? Texas Immigration Enforcement Law Likely to Face Court Challenge” (USA Today, December 18, 2023).
- Keenan Willard, “Gov. Abbott to Sign Bills Allocating $1.5b for Border Security, Criminalizing Illegal Crossings” (NBC Dallas-Fort Worth, December 17, 2023).
NewsNation reported that migrant deaths by drowning in the Rio Grande are worsening in Eagle Pass, Texas: “Currently, one trailer holds 24 deceased bodies, and officials say they need more trailers…‘This is where we store them… we encounter 2-3 bodies a day.’”
- Jorge Ventura, “Drownings a Daily Occurrence at the Us-Mexico Border, Officials Say” (NewsNation, December 17, 2023).
The United States has deported 52,192 Guatemalan citizens by air in 2023: 29,603 men, 12,849 women and 9,740 minors, both accompanied and unaccompanied; some were part of more than 7,000 family units.
- Sandy Pineda, “Crisis Migratoria: Igm Registra Aumento de 28.2% en Cifra de Retornados a Guatemala via Aerea Desde Ee. Uu. En 2023” (Prensa Libre (Guatemala), December 16, 2023).
Analyses and Feature Stories
The New York Times found that Democrats’ willingness to entertain some Republican demands on asylum and migrant protections reflects a “seismic shift” to the right on U.S. immigration politics. Many Democrats are upset and worry that it will hurt enthusiasm and turnout of Latino and progressive voters.
- Zolan Kanno-Youngs, “Biden’s Border Negotiations Mark Seismic Shift on Immigration Politics” (The New York Times, December 16, 2023).
- Anthony Zurcher, “Biden Risks Democrats’ Fury Over Deal on Border and Ukraine” (BBC (UK), December 15, 2023).
Part of the United States’ rightward shift, Keegan Hamilton wrote at the Los Angeles Times, is greater participation in, and tolerance of, armed militia groups at the border.
- Keegan Hamilton, “As Border Extremism Goes Mainstream, Vigilante Groups Take a Starring Role” (The Los Angeles Times, December 18, 2023).
A letter from four leading members of the United States Conference of Catholic Bishops warned against new asylum restrictions, warning that they “will lead to many more deaths of immigrants on the border.”
- Peter Pinedo, “U.S. Bishops Weigh in on Border Deal Negotiations” (Catholic News Agency, December 16, 2023).
Reuters found a sharp increase in the number of Mexican people fleeing to the border after being displaced by organized crime-tied violence.
- Daina Beth Solomon, Laura Gottesdiener, “Insight: Rise in Mexican Cartel Violence Drives Record Migration to the Us” (Reuters, Reuters, December 15, 2023).