Developments
The House of Representatives has adjourned for the year, and its Republican leadership is showing little willingness to come back before the body is scheduled to re-convene, during the second week of January. However, the Democratic-majority Senate, which was also scheduled to adjourn yesterday, remains in session. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-New York) is keeping the Senate open during the week of December 18. This would give more time to negotiators trying to hammer out a deal that would fund the Biden administration’s request for $110.5 billion in Ukraine and Israel aid (along with border funding and other priorities), while incorporating Republicans’ demand that it come with historic new restrictions on the right to asylum and other migrant protections at the U.S.-Mexico border.
- Karoun Demirjian, “Schumer Delays Holiday Break, Pressing for Border Deal to Unlock Ukraine Aid” (The New York Times, December 14, 2023).
- Camilo Montoya-Galvez, Ed o’keefe, “Drastic Border Restrictions Considered by Biden and the Senate Reflect Seismic Political Shift on Immigration” (CBS News, December 14, 2023).
- Joe Khalil, “Congress Remains Stalled on Funding for Ukraine, Israel, Border” (NewsNation, December 14, 2023).
- Alex J. Rouhandeh, “Fentanyl Crisis Fuels Democratic Support for Border Deal” (Newsweek, December 14, 2023).
No additional news has emerged about what these likely restrictions might be; as previous daily links posts explain, they appear to involve a new Title 42-like authority to expel asylum seekers, expansion of expedited removal with tougher screening criteria, and more detention of asylum seekers. Democrats appear to continue resisting Republican demands for a rollback of the 1950s-era presidential authority to grant temporary humanitarian parole, which currently benefits 30,000 people per month from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela plus Ukrainiains.
- Isabela Dias, “’Unconscionable‘: The Potential Changes to Border Enforcement Tied to Ukraine Aid Could Bring Back Trump-Era Policies” (Mother Jones, December 14, 2023).
- Andrew Prokop, “Why Biden May Give in to Republican Demands on Immigration” (Vox, December 14, 2023).
- “Mandatory Detention Is Cruel, Unnecessary, and Wasteful” (Human Rights First, December 14, 2023).
A small group of senators from both parties has been negotiating the migration restrictions, now with frequent Biden administration input—including a meeting yesterday evening with White House Chief of Staff Jeff Zients and Legislative Affairs Director Shuwanza Goff. Democratic negotiators (and former Democrat Kyrsten Sinema, I-Arizona) are sounding notes of optimism about reaching a deal next week, though Republicans not at the table sound more skeptical, and the possibility of the House passing a resulting bill before 2024 is very slim. “Many GOP senators, and maybe some Democrats, will not come to Washington next week because there’s no real expectation of a deal,” a Senate aide told the Messenger.
- Anthony Adragna, Burgess Everett, Jennifer Haberkorn, “Sinema ‘Can See the Deal’ on Ukraine-Border as Schumer Cuts Recess” (Politico, December 14, 2023).
- Lisa Mascaro, Seung Min Kim, Stephen Groves, “Congress Departs Without a Deal on Ukraine Aid and Border Security, but Senate Will Work Next Week” (Associated Press, Associated Press, December 14, 2023).
- Lindsey Mcpherson, Nolan D. Mccaskill, Warren Rojas, “Senate Delays Year-End Recess, Staying in Session Next Week” (The Messenger, December 14, 2023).
- Frank Thorp V, Julie Tsirkin, Rebecca Shabad, “Sen. Kyrsten Sinema Says ‘Failure Is Not an Option’ in Border Security Talks” (NBC News, December 14, 2023).
- “Sen. Kennedy Vows Gop Will Not Budge on Border Security: ‘We’re as Serious as Four Heart Attacks and a Stroke’” (Fox News, December 14, 2023).
- “Andrew Desiderio @Andrewdesiderio on Twitter” (Twitter, December 14, 2023).
- “Joseph Zeballos-Roig @Josephzeballos on Twitter” (Twitter, December 14, 2023).
- “Igor Bobic @Igorbobic on Twitter” (Twitter, December 14, 2023).
Democratic legislators not at the negotiating table, many of them Latino, are complaining about being in the dark about what is under discussion. Some of those quoted include Sens. Ben Ray Lujan (D-New Mexico), Dick Durbin (D-Illinois), Alex Padilla (D-California), and Bob Menendez (D-New Jersey). Durbin is the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee and longtime immigration-reform advocate, and Padilla chairs the Committee’s Subcommittee on Immigration, Citizenship, and Border Safety. Axios reported that senior White House officials have called some Congressional Hispanic Caucus and Progressive Caucus members.
- Hans Nichols, “White House Plows Ahead on Border Talks Despite Progressive Backlash” (Axios, December 14, 2023).
- “Manu Raju @Mkraju on Twitter” (Twitter, December 14, 2023).
- Andrew Desiderio, John Bresnahan, Max Cohen, “Biden’s Problems on the Left” (Punchbowl News, December 14, 2023).
Border Patrol agents speaking anonymously to the conservative Washington Examiner said they doubted that the proposed changes would reduce migration at the border. Agents instead demanded more removals and deportations, which would either require Mexico’s acceptance of hundreds of thousands of removed migrants, or a multiplication of costly deportation flights at a time when both pilots and aircraft are in short supply nationwide.
- Anna Giaritelli, “Border Patrol Agents Skeptical of Proposed Biden Immigration Deal: ‘A Little Too Late’” (The Washington Examiner, December 14, 2023).
The San Diego-Tijuana migrant-rights defense group Al Otro Lado has documented 1,081 family separations, including 400 separations of spouses and 200 separations of adult children of parents, during Border Patrol’s recent processing of increased arrivals of asylum seekers in the San Diego Sector.
- Andrea Castillo, “Over 1,000 Migrant Families Separated at Border Near San Diego Since September, Advocates Say” (The Los Angeles Times, December 14, 2023).
An intense gun battle between Mexican criminal factions close to the border wall near Sásabe, Sonora led Border Patrol to evacuate humanitarian workers and construction contractors in a remote part of Arizona on December 13.
- Emily Bregel, “Aid Workers, Contract Crews Evacuated From Border Wall Due to Gun Battle in Mexico” (The Arizona Daily Star, December 14, 2023).
Analyses and Feature Stories
At his Americas Migration Brief newsletter, Jordi Amaral laid out “Five Migration Trends in the Americas to Watch in 2024.” Spoiler alert: they are maritime migration, Haiti’s crisis, climate change, integration efforts, and upcoming elections.
- Jordi Amaral, “5 Migration Trends in the Americas to Watch in 2024” (Americas Migration Brief, December 14, 2023).
Daniel González of the Austin American-Statesman visited the crowded segment of the Mexico-Guatemala border near Tapachula, finding that migrant deaths are surging, often due to road accidents involving unsafe transport vehicles.
- Daniel Gonzalez, “In Southern Mexico, the Cost for Migrants to Reach the Us Is Increasingly Death” (The Austin American-Statesman, December 14, 2023).